Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

GFH Financial Group BSC (GFH.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.26 - $7.34$2.33
Multi-Stage$0.77 - $0.85$0.81
Blended Fair Value$1.57
Current Price$0.46
Upside237.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.33%138.93%0.020.020.010.000.010.010.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth--3.83%30.30%155.01%-53.05%20.61%-59.24%27.34%0.00%-100.00%17,430.00%
Dividend Yield--5.68%5.67%4.90%1.50%6.37%6.17%8.87%4.97%0.00%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.3716.489.89
Cash Retained (M)30.1330.1330.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.37-16.48-9.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.7713.6520.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,571.943,571.943,571.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.26$2.33$7.34
Upside / Downside170.35%400.35%1,479.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.83140.40149.52159.24169.59180.62186.03
Payout Ratio77.14%79.71%82.29%84.86%87.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.70111.92123.04135.13148.27162.55172.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)102.67103.65104.62
Year 2 PV (M)103.55105.52107.52
Year 3 PV (M)104.34107.33110.38
Year 4 PV (M)105.03109.07113.22
Year 5 PV (M)105.64110.74116.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,246.152,354.642,467.28
Equity Value (M)2,767.382,890.953,019.06
Shares Outstanding (M)3,571.943,571.943,571.94
Fair Value$0.77$0.81$0.85
Upside / Downside66.67%74.12%81.83%

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