Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Goodwin PLC (GDWN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.71 - $275.76$171.97
Multi-Stage$84.88 - $92.60$88.67
Blended Fair Value$130.32
Current Price$67.20
Upside93.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.59%12.60%1.331.151.101.050.800.920.810.420.410.41
YoY Growth--15.66%4.19%5.43%30.68%-13.15%13.08%95.28%0.84%0.19%1.84%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.68%2.77%3.12%2.69%4.11%2.63%2.36%2.59%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.295.183.11
Cash Retained (M)22.8522.8522.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.29-5.18-3.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.5517.6619.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.527.527.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.942.352.63
LTM Dividend per Share2.482.482.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.942.352.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.414.835.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$116.71$171.97$275.76
Upside / Downside73.67%155.90%310.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.4744.1747.0450.0953.3556.8258.52
Payout Ratio44.91%53.93%62.95%71.96%80.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.6223.8229.6136.0543.2051.1454.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.49%9.49%9.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)21.5521.7521.96
Year 2 PV (M)24.2424.7025.16
Year 3 PV (M)26.7027.4728.25
Year 4 PV (M)28.9530.0631.21
Year 5 PV (M)31.0032.5034.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)505.78530.21555.58
Equity Value (M)638.22666.69696.21
Shares Outstanding (M)7.527.527.52
Fair Value$84.88$88.67$92.60
Upside / Downside26.32%31.95%37.79%

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