Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fresnillo plc (FRES.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.84 - $50.82$31.03
Multi-Stage$15.69 - $17.08$16.37
Blended Fair Value$23.70
Current Price$19.77
Upside19.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.28%-1.06%0.110.150.270.330.140.190.400.320.120.05
YoY Growth---27.87%-46.35%-17.76%134.57%-26.37%-52.30%26.00%168.15%135.07%-56.84%
Dividend Yield--1.36%2.02%2.51%2.76%0.92%2.28%3.69%1.66%0.80%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)703.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)589.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)140.7887.9952.79
Cash Retained (M)114.40114.40114.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-140.78-87.99-52.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)-26.3726.4261.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)736.89736.89736.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.840.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.84$31.03$50.82
Upside / Downside5.40%56.94%157.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)703.88749.63798.36850.25905.52964.38993.31
Payout Ratio83.75%85.00%86.25%87.50%88.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)589.48637.17688.57743.96803.64867.94918.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)577.12582.59588.06
Year 2 PV (M)564.89575.65586.51
Year 3 PV (M)552.81568.68584.85
Year 4 PV (M)540.88561.68583.07
Year 5 PV (M)529.10554.65581.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,794.419,219.199,660.22
Equity Value (M)11,559.2112,062.4412,583.90
Shares Outstanding (M)736.89736.89736.89
Fair Value$15.69$16.37$17.08
Upside / Downside-20.66%-17.20%-13.62%

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