Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Volution Group plc (FAN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.07 - $84.05$36.14
Multi-Stage$9.36 - $10.23$9.78
Blended Fair Value$22.96
Current Price$6.70
Upside242.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.82%24.64%0.100.080.070.070.020.030.050.040.040.03
YoY Growth--15.76%10.75%11.69%252.79%-42.39%-28.12%7.24%7.72%14.07%228.29%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.50%1.85%1.61%0.40%1.96%2.50%2.09%2.07%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.8710.546.32
Cash Retained (M)48.9148.9148.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.87-10.54-6.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.0438.3742.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.54199.54199.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.07$36.14$84.05
Upside / Downside154.74%439.33%1,154.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.3389.8195.65101.87108.49115.54119.01
Payout Ratio42.00%51.60%61.20%70.80%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.4246.3558.5472.1287.22103.99110.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.6743.0843.48
Year 2 PV (M)49.6350.5751.53
Year 3 PV (M)56.2957.9159.56
Year 4 PV (M)62.6965.1067.58
Year 5 PV (M)68.8172.1375.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,586.951,663.601,743.19
Equity Value (M)1,867.041,952.392,040.91
Shares Outstanding (M)199.54199.54199.54
Fair Value$9.36$9.78$10.23
Upside / Downside39.65%46.04%52.66%

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