Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fagron N.V. (FAGR.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.87 - $443.44$332.99
Multi-Stage$62.92 - $68.92$65.87
Blended Fair Value$199.43
Current Price$22.45
Upside788.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.58%-0.53%0.290.250.200.180.080.120.100.000.000.43
YoY Growth--15.23%25.35%11.84%125.95%-33.02%20.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%41.29%
Dividend Yield--1.72%1.51%1.50%1.21%0.42%0.61%0.69%0.00%0.00%6.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.7220.4512.27
Cash Retained (M)118.38118.38118.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.72-20.45-12.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.6597.93106.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.9872.9872.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.171.341.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.171.341.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.962.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Fair Value$115.87$332.99$443.44
Upside / Downside416.13%1,383.24%1,875.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.62173.29183.53194.38205.86218.02224.56
Payout Ratio27.65%40.12%52.59%65.06%77.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.2469.5396.52126.46159.60196.22207.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Year 1 PV (M)64.6565.2665.88
Year 2 PV (M)83.4585.0586.66
Year 3 PV (M)101.66104.59107.59
Year 4 PV (M)119.30123.91128.66
Year 5 PV (M)136.37143.00149.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,086.504,285.024,491.17
Equity Value (M)4,591.934,806.835,029.83
Shares Outstanding (M)72.9872.9872.98
Fair Value$62.92$65.87$68.92
Upside / Downside180.27%193.39%207.00%

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