Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ETGA Group Ltd (ETGA.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.07 - $340.24$110.36
Multi-Stage$36.59 - $39.90$38.21
Blended Fair Value$74.29
Current Price$22.09
Upside236.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS37.97%0.00%0.910.520.910.850.680.180.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--73.91%-42.50%6.21%25.53%275.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.37%4.96%5.22%3.86%3.22%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.564.722.83
Cash Retained (M)3.783.783.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.56-4.72-2.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.78-0.940.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.0822.0822.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.541.541.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.371.501.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.07$110.36$340.24
Upside / Downside167.39%399.61%1,440.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.7840.2442.8545.6448.6051.7653.32
Payout Ratio89.99%89.99%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.0036.2138.5641.0743.7446.5949.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)33.2333.5533.86
Year 2 PV (M)32.4833.1033.72
Year 3 PV (M)31.7432.6533.58
Year 4 PV (M)31.0332.2233.45
Year 5 PV (M)30.3231.7933.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)649.20680.56713.12
Equity Value (M)808.00843.86881.04
Shares Outstanding (M)22.0822.0822.08
Fair Value$36.59$38.21$39.90
Upside / Downside65.64%72.99%80.61%

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