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The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$198.09 - $1,112.72$376.76
Multi-Stage$112.00 - $122.61$117.21
Blended Fair Value$246.98
Current Price$172.77
Upside42.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.05%8.06%0.230.220.210.200.180.170.160.150.140.13
YoY Growth--6.06%5.93%5.37%6.63%6.28%8.19%8.05%6.66%9.06%19.01%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.18%0.22%0.22%0.20%0.46%0.34%0.60%0.79%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)328.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)313.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.6441.0324.62
Cash Retained (M)313.98313.98313.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.64-41.03-24.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)248.34272.95289.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.6658.6658.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.234.654.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.234.654.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.484.905.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$198.09$376.76$1,112.72
Upside / Downside14.66%118.07%544.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)328.20349.54372.26396.45422.22449.67463.16
Payout Ratio4.34%21.47%38.60%55.73%72.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2375.04143.70220.96307.66404.70428.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)68.9069.5670.21
Year 2 PV (M)121.15123.46125.79
Year 3 PV (M)171.06175.97180.98
Year 4 PV (M)218.70227.12235.77
Year 5 PV (M)264.16276.92290.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,725.806,002.366,289.50
Equity Value (M)6,569.786,875.387,192.41
Shares Outstanding (M)58.6658.6658.66
Fair Value$112.00$117.21$122.61
Upside / Downside-35.17%-32.16%-29.03%

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