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Definitive Analysis

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Elis S.A. (ELIS.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.28 - $456.65$365.95
Multi-Stage$66.62 - $72.97$69.74
Blended Fair Value$217.84
Current Price$24.34
Upside795.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.52%0.00%0.380.230.120.000.000.310.300.190.150.15
YoY Growth--64.18%85.84%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.25%56.67%29.90%-0.20%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.02%1.23%0.90%0.00%0.00%1.65%2.09%0.84%0.93%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)614.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)206.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)407.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.8076.7546.05
Cash Retained (M)407.60407.60407.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.80-76.75-46.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)284.80330.85361.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)265.82265.82265.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.241.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.241.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate4.86%5.86%6.86%
Fair Value$122.28$365.95$456.65
Upside / Downside402.38%1,403.48%1,776.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)614.00650.00688.11728.46771.17816.39840.88
Payout Ratio33.62%44.89%56.17%67.45%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)206.40291.80386.51491.32607.09734.75777.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate4.86%5.86%6.86%
Year 1 PV (M)271.54274.13276.72
Year 2 PV (M)334.69341.10347.58
Year 3 PV (M)395.90407.33418.99
Year 4 PV (M)455.21472.83490.95
Year 5 PV (M)512.67537.59563.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,739.6216,504.5517,298.94
Equity Value (M)17,709.6318,537.5319,396.63
Shares Outstanding (M)265.82265.82265.82
Fair Value$66.62$69.74$72.97
Upside / Downside173.72%186.51%199.79%

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