Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ecotel Communication Ag (E4C.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.81 - $9.41$7.43
Multi-Stage$11.69 - $12.83$12.24
Blended Fair Value$9.84
Current Price$13.10
Upside-24.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.33%0.00%0.4417.730.000.130.000.120.120.220.220.15
YoY Growth---97.50%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-43.49%-0.04%43.75%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.42%120.99%0.00%0.43%0.00%2.06%1.48%2.24%2.66%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.400.250.15
Cash Retained (M)0.360.360.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.40-0.25-0.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.050.100.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.733.733.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.70%0.30%1.30%
Fair Value$5.81$7.43$9.41
Upside / Downside-55.65%-43.30%-28.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.012.012.022.022.032.042.10
Payout Ratio82.27%83.82%85.36%86.91%88.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.651.691.721.761.801.831.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.70%0.30%1.30%
Year 1 PV (M)1.561.581.60
Year 2 PV (M)1.481.511.54
Year 3 PV (M)1.411.451.49
Year 4 PV (M)1.331.391.44
Year 5 PV (M)1.261.331.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)36.5038.3740.32
Equity Value (M)43.5545.6347.80
Shares Outstanding (M)3.733.733.73
Fair Value$11.69$12.24$12.83
Upside / Downside-10.80%-6.53%-2.10%

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