Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $71.65 - $116.28 | $91.67 |
| Multi-Stage | $93.61 - $102.19 | $97.82 |
| Blended Fair Value | $94.75 | |
| Current Price | $123.75 | |
| Upside | -23.44% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.79% | 3.70% | 4.14 | 4.18 | 4.10 | 4.01 | 3.62 | 3.44 | 3.18 | 3.16 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.96% | 2.04% | 2.09% | 10.74% | 5.40% | 7.97% | 0.86% | 5.06% | 3.46% | 0.90% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.39% | 4.35% | 4.25% | 3.59% | 3.75% | 4.25% | 3.57% | 4.07% | 3.66% | 3.60% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,993.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,022.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 971.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 998.60 | 624.13 | 374.48 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 971.00 | 971.00 | 971.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -998.60 | -624.13 | -374.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -27.60 | 346.88 | 596.53 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 776.25 | 776.25 | 776.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.18 | 5.18 | 5.18 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.15 | 5.63 | 5.95 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.79% | 2.79% | 3.79% |
| Fair Value | $71.65 | $91.67 | $116.28 |
| Upside / Downside | -42.10% | -25.92% | -6.04% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,993.00 | 5,132.18 | 5,275.24 | 5,422.28 | 5,573.43 | 5,728.79 | 5,900.65 |
| Payout Ratio | 80.55% | 82.44% | 84.33% | 86.22% | 88.11% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,022.00 | 4,231.08 | 4,448.70 | 4,675.15 | 4,910.78 | 5,155.91 | 5,458.10 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 1.79% | 2.79% | 3.79% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,840.51 | 3,878.24 | 3,915.97 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,665.28 | 3,737.65 | 3,810.73 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,496.29 | 3,600.36 | 3,706.46 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,333.50 | 3,466.44 | 3,603.32 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,176.82 | 3,335.96 | 3,501.43 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 55,149.43 | 57,912.23 | 60,784.67 |
| Equity Value (M) | 72,661.83 | 75,930.88 | 79,322.58 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 776.25 | 776.25 | 776.25 |
| Fair Value | $93.61 | $97.82 | $102.19 |
| Upside / Downside | -24.36% | -20.96% | -17.42% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |