Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cleanaway Waste Management Limited (CWY.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.15 - $27.86$26.11
Multi-Stage$4.00 - $4.37$4.19
Blended Fair Value$15.15
Current Price$2.72
Upside456.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.07%10.71%0.050.050.050.040.040.030.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--12.68%1.17%9.47%13.80%19.02%26.18%66.67%39.83%12.38%-50.47%
Dividend Yield--1.93%1.69%1.78%1.67%1.40%1.41%1.03%0.87%0.78%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)313.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.7039.1923.51
Cash Retained (M)94.1094.1094.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.70-39.19-23.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.4054.9170.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,238.062,238.062,238.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.15$26.11$27.86
Upside / Downside273.21%859.81%924.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)313.50333.88355.58378.69403.31429.52442.41
Payout Ratio69.98%73.99%77.99%81.99%86.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.40247.03277.32310.50346.83386.57409.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)229.42231.59233.77
Year 2 PV (M)239.19243.75248.34
Year 3 PV (M)248.72255.86263.14
Year 4 PV (M)258.02267.94278.15
Year 5 PV (M)267.08279.98293.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,715.188,087.838,474.74
Equity Value (M)8,957.619,366.959,791.50
Shares Outstanding (M)2,238.062,238.062,238.06
Fair Value$4.00$4.19$4.37
Upside / Downside47.15%53.87%60.85%

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