Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

PJSC Severstal (CHMF.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,587.65 - $19,173.16$17,968.06
Multi-Stage$2,977.96 - $3,258.87$3,115.83
Blended Fair Value$10,541.95
Current Price$943.20
Upside1,017.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.92%14.05%289.150.000.05260.06108.59116.58163.90105.4267.6162.04
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-99.98%139.49%-6.86%-28.87%55.48%55.92%8.99%-20.13%
Dividend Yield--24.34%0.00%0.00%23.64%7.06%13.45%15.94%12.08%8.35%8.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80,790.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38,290.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)42,500.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16,158.0010,098.756,059.25
Cash Retained (M)42,500.0042,500.0042,500.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-16,158.00-10,098.75-6,059.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)26,342.0032,401.2536,440.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)838.00838.00838.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.4338.6643.49
LTM Dividend per Share45.6945.6945.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.4338.6643.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend77.1384.3689.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9,587.65$17,968.06$19,173.16
Upside / Downside916.50%1,805.01%1,932.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80,790.0086,041.3591,634.0497,590.25103,933.62110,689.30114,009.98
Payout Ratio47.39%55.92%64.44%72.96%81.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38,290.0048,110.5259,045.9471,199.6984,683.9699,620.37105,459.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44,813.7045,238.4845,663.25
Year 2 PV (M)51,230.8552,206.6553,191.66
Year 3 PV (M)57,542.7259,194.5660,877.72
Year 4 PV (M)63,750.5866,202.2568,723.96
Year 5 PV (M)69,855.7173,229.7676,732.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,208,333.752,314,997.092,425,742.70
Equity Value (M)2,495,527.302,611,068.802,730,932.24
Shares Outstanding (M)838.00838.00838.00
Fair Value$2,977.96$3,115.83$3,258.87
Upside / Downside215.73%230.35%245.51%

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