Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $522.03 - $1,359.39 | $1,273.95 |
| Multi-Stage | $196.94 - $215.38 | $205.99 |
| Blended Fair Value | $739.97 | |
| Current Price | $78.67 | |
| Upside | 840.60% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.65% | 17.27% | 1.98 | 1.83 | 1.66 | 1.39 | 0.84 | 1.25 | 1.11 | 1.06 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 8.20% | 10.22% | 19.59% | 65.28% | -32.75% | 11.89% | 4.91% | 139.71% | -12.07% | 25.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.67% | 3.03% | 3.21% | 2.82% | 2.06% | 2.75% | 2.79% | 3.21% | 1.49% | 1.55% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,146.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,810.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,336.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 629.20 | 393.25 | 235.95 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,336.00 | 1,336.00 | 1,336.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -629.20 | -393.25 | -235.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 706.80 | 942.75 | 1,100.05 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 460.25 | 460.25 | 460.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.54 | 2.05 | 2.39 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.93 | 3.93 | 3.93 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.54 | 2.05 | 2.39 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.47 | 5.98 | 6.32 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.61% | 6.61% | 6.61% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $522.03 | $1,273.95 | $1,359.39 |
| Upside / Downside | 563.56% | 1,519.36% | 1,627.97% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,146.00 | 3,350.49 | 3,568.27 | 3,800.21 | 4,047.22 | 4,310.29 | 4,439.60 |
| Payout Ratio | 57.53% | 64.03% | 70.52% | 77.01% | 83.51% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,810.00 | 2,145.21 | 2,516.35 | 2,926.67 | 3,379.70 | 3,879.26 | 4,106.63 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.61% | 6.61% | 6.61% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,993.40 | 2,012.29 | 2,031.19 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 2,172.80 | 2,214.19 | 2,255.96 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 2,348.27 | 2,415.68 | 2,484.37 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,519.86 | 2,616.77 | 2,716.45 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,687.65 | 2,817.47 | 2,952.25 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 78,920.14 | 82,732.02 | 86,689.78 |
| Equity Value (M) | 90,642.13 | 94,808.41 | 99,129.99 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 460.25 | 460.25 | 460.25 |
| Fair Value | $196.94 | $205.99 | $215.38 |
| Upside / Downside | 150.34% | 161.84% | 173.78% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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