Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Capital Limited (CAPD.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.84 - $14.34$8.71
Multi-Stage$4.09 - $4.47$4.28
Blended Fair Value$6.49
Current Price$1.17
Upside455.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.72%0.00%0.040.040.040.020.010.020.010.010.030.02
YoY Growth--0.64%7.73%49.20%116.79%-26.88%22.61%20.50%-62.41%33.63%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.90%3.40%3.10%2.13%1.23%1.75%2.49%1.97%3.90%6.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.396.493.90
Cash Retained (M)39.1739.1739.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.39-6.49-3.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.7832.6835.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)195.34195.34195.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.84$8.71$14.34
Upside / Downside399.01%644.66%1,125.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.9555.3358.9362.7666.8371.1873.31
Payout Ratio24.60%37.68%50.76%63.84%76.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.7820.8529.9140.0651.4164.0667.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18.8919.0719.25
Year 2 PV (M)24.5525.0225.49
Year 3 PV (M)29.7930.6431.52
Year 4 PV (M)34.6335.9637.33
Year 5 PV (M)39.1040.9842.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)652.31683.82716.53
Equity Value (M)799.26835.49873.06
Shares Outstanding (M)195.34195.34195.34
Fair Value$4.09$4.28$4.47
Upside / Downside249.71%265.56%281.99%

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