Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bangkok Life Assurance Public Company Limited (BLA-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.73 - $26.70$22.65
Multi-Stage$46.78 - $51.69$49.19
Blended Fair Value$35.92
Current Price$15.40
Upside133.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.14%0.03%0.400.560.880.230.320.720.540.750.640.78
YoY Growth---28.72%-36.31%281.86%-28.25%-55.46%33.30%-27.71%16.96%-17.81%95.36%
Dividend Yield--2.20%3.20%3.14%0.53%1.23%6.05%1.93%2.33%1.24%1.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,885.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)679.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,205.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)977.09610.68366.41
Cash Retained (M)4,205.564,205.564,205.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-977.09-610.68-366.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,228.473,594.883,839.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,705.351,705.351,705.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.892.112.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.892.112.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.292.512.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-4.90%-3.90%-2.90%
Fair Value$18.73$22.65$26.70
Upside / Downside21.61%47.05%73.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,885.434,694.804,511.604,335.564,166.384,003.804,123.92
Payout Ratio13.92%29.13%44.35%59.57%74.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)679.871,367.742,000.892,582.543,115.753,603.423,814.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-4.90%-3.90%-2.90%
Year 1 PV (M)1,268.091,281.431,294.76
Year 2 PV (M)1,719.971,756.331,793.07
Year 3 PV (M)2,058.222,123.842,190.83
Year 4 PV (M)2,302.282,400.652,502.15
Year 5 PV (M)2,468.642,601.192,739.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,961.1273,717.6777,633.88
Equity Value (M)79,778.3283,881.1288,154.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,705.351,705.351,705.35
Fair Value$46.78$49.19$51.69
Upside / Downside203.77%219.40%235.67%

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