Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $68.14 - $180.75 | $104.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $47.00 - $51.33 | $49.12 |
| Blended Fair Value | $76.66 | |
| Current Price | $48.72 | |
| Upside | 57.34% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 16.18% | 11.60% | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.59 | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 6.36% | 8.26% | 22.64% | 21.31% | 23.54% | 25.40% | 103.23% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 6.45% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.91% | 2.36% | 2.53% | 1.63% | 2.27% | 3.78% | 1.14% | 0.56% | 0.00% | 0.97% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,891.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 891.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,000.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 578.20 | 361.38 | 216.83 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,000.00 | 2,000.00 | 2,000.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -578.20 | -361.38 | -216.83 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,421.80 | 1,638.63 | 1,783.18 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 995.25 | 995.25 | 995.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.43 | 1.65 | 1.79 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.43 | 1.65 | 1.79 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.32 | 2.54 | 2.69 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $68.14 | $104.19 | $180.75 |
| Upside / Downside | 39.86% | 113.86% | 271.01% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,891.00 | 3,078.92 | 3,279.04 | 3,492.18 | 3,719.17 | 3,960.92 | 4,079.75 |
| Payout Ratio | 30.82% | 42.66% | 54.49% | 66.33% | 78.16% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 891.00 | 1,313.34 | 1,786.81 | 2,316.29 | 2,907.05 | 3,564.83 | 3,773.77 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,192.51 | 1,203.81 | 1,215.12 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,473.16 | 1,501.22 | 1,529.55 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,734.01 | 1,783.79 | 1,834.51 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,976.05 | 2,052.04 | 2,130.20 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,200.23 | 2,306.51 | 2,416.85 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 38,196.01 | 40,040.89 | 41,956.38 |
| Equity Value (M) | 46,771.97 | 48,888.26 | 51,082.60 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 995.25 | 995.25 | 995.25 |
| Fair Value | $47.00 | $49.12 | $51.33 |
| Upside / Downside | -3.54% | 0.82% | 5.35% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
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| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
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| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
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| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
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| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
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| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
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