Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $10.85 - $16.41 | $13.47 |
| Multi-Stage | $22.76 - $25.00 | $23.86 |
| Blended Fair Value | $18.66 | |
| Current Price | $9.45 | |
| Upside | 97.50% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.38% | 0.00% | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.52 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -35.96% | 37.59% | 71.41% | 0.00% | 8.50% | 5.26% | 42.87% | 4.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.98% | 10.77% | 4.82% | 2.56% | 2.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,056.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 759.20 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 297.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 211.28 | 132.05 | 79.23 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 297.20 | 297.20 | 297.20 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -211.28 | -132.05 | -79.23 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 85.92 | 165.15 | 217.97 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 838.34 | 838.34 | 838.34 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.10% | 7.10% | 7.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $10.85 | $13.47 | $16.41 |
| Upside / Downside | 14.84% | 42.54% | 73.64% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,056.40 | 1,045.84 | 1,035.38 | 1,025.02 | 1,014.77 | 1,004.63 | 1,034.76 |
| Payout Ratio | 71.87% | 75.49% | 79.12% | 82.75% | 86.37% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 759.20 | 789.54 | 819.19 | 848.17 | 876.49 | 904.16 | 957.16 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.10% | 7.10% | 7.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 729.73 | 737.17 | 744.62 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 699.78 | 714.13 | 728.63 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 669.65 | 690.36 | 711.49 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 639.59 | 666.09 | 693.42 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 609.80 | 641.55 | 674.61 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 15,731.77 | 16,550.96 | 17,403.92 |
| Equity Value (M) | 19,080.31 | 20,000.27 | 20,956.70 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 838.34 | 838.34 | 838.34 |
| Fair Value | $22.76 | $23.86 | $25.00 |
| Upside / Downside | 140.84% | 152.45% | 164.53% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |