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Definitive Analysis

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ASA International Group PLC (ASAI.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.93 - $224.38$182.47
Multi-Stage$318.86 - $351.16$334.69
Blended Fair Value$258.58
Current Price$1.06
Upside24,294.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.56%-42.22%0.030.000.000.000.000.070.090.050.050.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-16.09%67.15%14.62%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.07%1.63%1.15%1.10%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,600.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)504.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,095.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.05200.03120.02
Cash Retained (M)1,095.301,095.301,095.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.05-200.03-120.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)775.25895.27975.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.00100.00100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.758.959.75
LTM Dividend per Share5.055.055.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.758.959.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.8014.0014.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$145.93$182.47$224.38
Upside / Downside13,667.30%17,113.95%21,067.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,600.251,584.251,568.401,552.721,537.191,521.821,567.48
Payout Ratio31.55%43.24%54.93%66.62%78.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)504.95685.09861.571,034.451,203.791,369.641,449.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)636.20642.69649.18
Year 2 PV (M)742.99758.23773.62
Year 3 PV (M)828.41854.03880.17
Year 4 PV (M)895.23932.33970.58
Year 5 PV (M)945.88995.131,046.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,837.2129,286.7630,796.07
Equity Value (M)31,885.9133,469.1735,116.04
Shares Outstanding (M)100.00100.00100.00
Fair Value$318.86$334.69$351.16
Upside / Downside29,981.05%31,474.69%33,028.34%

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