Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Ateliers Mecaniques D'Indonesie Tbk (AMIN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$170.34 - $262.44$213.17
Multi-Stage$388.03 - $426.62$406.95
Blended Fair Value$310.06
Current Price$190.00
Upside63.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-8.97%0.00%5.000.000.000.000.008.008.008.008.008.40
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-4.79%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.00%1.85%1.79%2.38%7.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,039.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,040.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,999.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,007.862,504.911,502.95
Cash Retained (M)5,999.295,999.295,999.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,007.86-2,504.91-1,502.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,991.433,494.384,496.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,080.061,080.061,080.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.843.244.16
LTM Dividend per Share13.0013.0013.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.843.244.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.8416.2317.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$170.34$213.17$262.44
Upside / Downside-10.35%12.20%38.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,039.2919,838.8919,640.5119,444.1019,249.6619,057.1619,628.88
Payout Ratio70.06%74.05%78.04%82.02%86.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,040.0014,690.6815,326.9415,949.0116,557.1117,151.4518,156.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13,649.6613,788.9413,928.22
Year 2 PV (M)13,231.6913,503.1013,777.27
Year 3 PV (M)12,793.0313,188.6713,592.37
Year 4 PV (M)12,339.6812,851.1113,378.26
Year 5 PV (M)11,876.8212,495.2813,139.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)355,209.64373,706.23392,965.45
Equity Value (M)419,100.53439,533.33460,780.81
Shares Outstanding (M)1,080.061,080.061,080.06
Fair Value$388.03$406.95$426.62
Upside / Downside104.23%114.18%124.54%

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