Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Omer-Decugis & Cie S.A. (ALODC.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.57 - $40.65$24.72
Multi-Stage$11.40 - $12.47$11.93
Blended Fair Value$18.32
Current Price$4.27
Upside329.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS8.37%0.00%0.040.040.040.020.020.020.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth---0.60%0.24%50.05%0.00%0.00%-0.13%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.82%0.77%0.59%0.29%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.280.800.48
Cash Retained (M)5.825.825.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.28-0.80-0.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.535.025.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.498.498.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.590.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.590.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.57$24.72$40.65
Upside / Downside288.10%478.95%852.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.426.847.287.758.268.799.06
Payout Ratio9.35%25.48%41.61%57.74%73.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.601.743.034.486.107.918.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1.581.591.61
Year 2 PV (M)2.492.532.58
Year 3 PV (M)3.333.423.52
Year 4 PV (M)4.114.274.43
Year 5 PV (M)4.835.065.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)80.5284.4188.45
Equity Value (M)96.85101.29105.89
Shares Outstanding (M)8.498.498.49
Fair Value$11.40$11.93$12.47
Upside / Downside167.04%179.28%191.97%

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