Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Akis Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (AKSGY.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.23 - $14.59$12.37
Multi-Stage$15.28 - $16.81$16.03
Blended Fair Value$14.20
Current Price$6.49
Upside118.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-7.48%0.00%0.030.000.000.000.000.040.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,641.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,631.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)728.30455.19273.11
Cash Retained (M)3,631.573,631.573,631.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-728.30-455.19-273.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,903.273,176.383,358.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,415.002,415.002,415.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.201.321.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.201.321.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.321.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.23$12.37$14.59
Upside / Downside57.55%90.57%124.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,641.503,605.083,569.033,533.343,498.013,463.033,566.92
Payout Ratio0.27%18.22%36.16%54.11%72.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.93656.781,290.691,911.862,520.473,116.733,299.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)593.41599.46605.52
Year 2 PV (M)1,053.631,075.251,097.08
Year 3 PV (M)1,410.131,453.741,498.23
Year 4 PV (M)1,679.651,749.261,821.02
Year 5 PV (M)1,876.591,974.312,076.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,277.7031,854.3333,495.97
Equity Value (M)36,891.1138,706.3540,593.87
Shares Outstanding (M)2,415.002,415.002,415.00
Fair Value$15.28$16.03$16.81
Upside / Downside135.37%146.96%159.00%

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