Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. (AHOG.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.30 - $445.04$179.29
Multi-Stage$66.49 - $72.83$69.60
Blended Fair Value$124.45
Current Price$34.45
Upside261.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.42%9.62%1.141.151.070.941.131.220.830.790.470.43
YoY Growth---0.67%6.64%14.37%-16.57%-7.90%47.16%5.14%67.83%8.33%-4.35%
Dividend Yield--3.29%4.14%3.40%3.22%4.74%5.74%3.52%4.10%2.35%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,066.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,070.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)996.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.20258.25154.95
Cash Retained (M)996.00996.00996.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.20-258.25-154.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)582.80737.75841.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)911.75911.75911.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.810.92
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.810.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Fair Value$87.30$179.29$445.04
Upside / Downside153.41%420.45%1,191.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,066.002,172.682,284.872,402.852,526.922,657.402,737.12
Payout Ratio51.79%59.43%67.07%74.72%82.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,070.001,291.281,532.561,795.322,081.122,391.662,531.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,202.901,214.451,226.00
Year 2 PV (M)1,329.951,355.611,381.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,451.341,493.541,536.55
Year 4 PV (M)1,567.231,628.291,691.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,677.811,759.911,845.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,394.0156,006.6858,720.64
Equity Value (M)60,623.2563,458.4966,401.02
Shares Outstanding (M)911.75911.75911.75
Fair Value$66.49$69.60$72.83
Upside / Downside93.01%102.03%111.40%

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