Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Africa Israel Residences Ltd (AFRE.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$436.56 - $1,161.66$668.23
Multi-Stage$409.95 - $449.04$429.13
Blended Fair Value$548.68
Current Price$260.10
Upside110.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.67%5.20%6.536.136.607.083.933.933.936.295.503.93
YoY Growth--6.41%-7.14%-6.67%80.00%0.00%0.00%-37.50%14.29%40.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.92%2.48%4.67%3.20%2.49%4.80%5.62%8.69%7.26%5.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)240.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.0530.0318.02
Cash Retained (M)162.27162.27162.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.05-30.03-18.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.22132.24144.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.7212.7212.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.9810.4011.34
LTM Dividend per Share6.136.136.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.9810.4011.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.1116.5317.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate3.71%4.71%5.71%
Fair Value$436.56$668.23$1,161.66
Upside / Downside67.85%156.91%346.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)240.27251.58263.42275.81288.79302.38311.45
Payout Ratio32.46%43.97%55.48%66.99%78.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.00110.62146.14184.75226.68272.14288.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate3.71%4.71%5.71%
Year 1 PV (M)102.11103.10104.08
Year 2 PV (M)124.53126.94129.38
Year 3 PV (M)145.33149.57153.90
Year 4 PV (M)164.59171.03177.66
Year 5 PV (M)182.41191.37200.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,494.994,715.934,945.48
Equity Value (M)5,213.965,457.955,711.18
Shares Outstanding (M)12.7212.7212.72
Fair Value$409.95$429.13$449.04
Upside / Downside57.61%64.99%72.64%

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