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Definitive Analysis

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ATCO Ltd. (ACO-X.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.14 - $66.13$52.42
Multi-Stage$85.30 - $93.79$89.46
Blended Fair Value$70.94
Current Price$50.78
Upside39.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.41%8.31%1.961.911.881.821.781.651.541.331.161.01
YoY Growth--2.33%1.90%2.93%2.50%7.53%7.51%15.33%14.50%14.91%15.15%
Dividend Yield--3.90%5.09%4.33%4.25%4.26%4.24%3.40%3.22%2.25%2.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)216.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.8054.8832.93
Cash Retained (M)216.00216.00216.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.80-54.88-32.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)128.20161.13183.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.49112.49112.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.431.63
LTM Dividend per Share1.981.981.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.431.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.123.413.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$41.14$52.42$66.13
Upside / Downside-18.99%3.24%30.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)439.00438.93438.85438.78438.71438.64451.80
Payout Ratio50.80%58.64%66.48%74.32%82.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.00257.38291.74326.10360.44394.77417.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)239.26241.68244.09
Year 2 PV (M)252.12257.24262.41
Year 3 PV (M)261.97269.99278.17
Year 4 PV (M)269.18280.22291.60
Year 5 PV (M)274.06288.19302.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,298.648,726.399,171.60
Equity Value (M)9,595.2310,063.7110,550.77
Shares Outstanding (M)112.49112.49112.49
Fair Value$85.30$89.46$93.79
Upside / Downside67.98%76.18%84.71%

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