Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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abrdn Asian Income Fund Limited (AAIF.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.49 - $5.25$4.32
Multi-Stage$4.80 - $5.26$5.03
Blended Fair Value$4.68
Current Price$2.23
Upside109.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.34%2.29%0.120.110.100.100.100.100.100.110.100.11
YoY Growth--7.28%8.80%0.82%-0.18%0.32%-0.19%-7.09%9.02%-3.67%9.26%
Dividend Yield--5.56%5.48%4.87%4.50%4.55%4.85%5.30%5.16%5.29%6.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.717.954.77
Cash Retained (M)40.1440.1440.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.71-7.95-4.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.4332.2035.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.10157.10157.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Fair Value$3.49$4.32$5.25
Upside / Downside56.60%93.85%135.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.5664.3865.2166.0566.9167.7769.80
Payout Ratio36.85%47.48%58.11%68.74%79.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.4230.5737.8945.4053.1060.9964.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)27.6227.8928.17
Year 2 PV (M)30.9431.5632.18
Year 3 PV (M)33.4934.5035.53
Year 4 PV (M)35.3936.8238.30
Year 5 PV (M)36.7338.5940.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)590.44620.47651.71
Equity Value (M)754.60789.84826.43
Shares Outstanding (M)157.10157.10157.10
Fair Value$4.80$5.03$5.26
Upside / Downside115.39%125.45%135.89%

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