Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ASG Plastic Factory Co. (9607.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - MiscellaneousSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.91 - $65.71$52.85
Multi-Stage$100.75 - $111.04$105.80
Blended Fair Value$79.32
Current Price$52.00
Upside52.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.770.700.890.190.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.74%-20.72%367.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.17%1.43%1.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.023.762.26
Cash Retained (M)21.6621.6621.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.02-3.76-2.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6317.8919.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.976.976.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.242.572.78
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.242.572.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.463.784.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$41.91$52.85$65.71
Upside / Downside-19.41%1.63%26.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.1229.8229.5229.2228.9328.6429.50
Payout Ratio28.09%40.47%52.85%65.24%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.4612.0715.6019.0622.4625.7827.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.2611.3811.49
Year 2 PV (M)13.5913.8614.15
Year 3 PV (M)15.4915.9716.46
Year 4 PV (M)17.0317.7318.46
Year 5 PV (M)18.2419.1920.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)626.93659.58693.57
Equity Value (M)702.54737.71774.30
Shares Outstanding (M)6.976.976.97
Fair Value$100.75$105.80$111.04
Upside / Downside93.75%103.45%113.55%

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