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Definitive Analysis

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Foods Gate Trading Co. (9562.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.49 - $91.02$74.23
Multi-Stage$124.89 - $137.64$131.14
Blended Fair Value$102.68
Current Price$38.00
Upside170.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.890.000.003.460.290.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%1,100.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.141.961.18
Cash Retained (M)13.5813.5813.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.14-1.96-1.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.4411.6212.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.362.362.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.424.915.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.424.915.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.315.806.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$59.49$74.23$91.02
Upside / Downside56.56%95.34%139.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.6815.5215.3715.2115.0614.9115.36
Payout Ratio13.40%28.72%44.04%59.36%74.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.104.466.779.0311.2513.4214.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.134.184.22
Year 2 PV (M)5.825.946.06
Year 3 PV (M)7.207.437.65
Year 4 PV (M)8.328.679.02
Year 5 PV (M)9.219.6910.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)260.58274.15288.27
Equity Value (M)295.26310.04325.41
Shares Outstanding (M)2.362.362.36
Fair Value$124.89$131.14$137.64
Upside / Downside228.66%245.11%262.22%

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