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Definitive Analysis

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Japan Transcity Corporation (9310.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,981.28 - $19,119.82$17,918.07
Multi-Stage$2,809.82 - $3,075.03$2,939.99
Blended Fair Value$10,429.03
Current Price$1,093.00
Upside854.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.33%9.91%23.6612.2411.2510.2210.2010.2010.2010.1910.6910.23
YoY Growth--93.37%8.77%10.12%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.16%-4.76%4.51%11.25%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.18%1.81%2.08%1.90%2.02%2.12%1.89%2.35%3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,041.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,449.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,592.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,208.20755.13453.08
Cash Retained (M)3,592.003,592.003,592.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,208.20-755.13-453.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,383.802,836.883,138.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.8462.8462.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share37.9445.1549.95
LTM Dividend per Share38.9738.9738.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share37.9445.1549.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend76.9184.1288.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,981.28$17,918.07$19,119.82
Upside / Downside630.22%1,539.35%1,649.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,041.006,433.676,851.857,297.227,771.548,276.698,524.99
Payout Ratio40.54%50.43%60.32%70.22%80.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,449.003,244.614,133.305,123.816,225.627,449.027,885.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,017.503,046.103,074.71
Year 2 PV (M)3,574.933,643.023,711.76
Year 3 PV (M)4,121.444,239.754,360.31
Year 4 PV (M)4,657.194,836.295,020.51
Year 5 PV (M)5,182.345,432.655,692.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)156,002.95163,537.95171,361.33
Equity Value (M)176,556.35184,735.77193,221.15
Shares Outstanding (M)62.8462.8462.84
Fair Value$2,809.82$2,939.99$3,075.03
Upside / Downside157.07%168.98%181.34%

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