Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (9201.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,920.47 - $6,990.80$5,213.42
Multi-Stage$5,770.32 - $6,334.81$6,047.19
Blended Fair Value$5,630.30
Current Price$2,983.00
Upside88.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.58%2.49%84.8954.800.000.020.0787.3790.13118.5399.5986.34
YoY Growth--54.91%1,196,100.00%-71.43%-77.42%-99.92%-3.05%-23.97%19.02%15.35%30.03%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.50%2.57%3.02%2.87%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124,807.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,500.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)87,307.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,961.4015,600.889,360.53
Cash Retained (M)87,307.0087,307.0087,307.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,961.40-15,600.88-9,360.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)62,345.6071,706.1377,946.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)436.58436.58436.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share142.80164.24178.54
LTM Dividend per Share85.8985.8985.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share142.80164.24178.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend228.70250.14264.43
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Fair Value$3,920.47$5,213.42$6,990.80
Upside / Downside31.43%74.77%134.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124,807.00127,563.35130,380.58133,260.02136,203.06139,211.10143,387.43
Payout Ratio30.05%42.04%54.03%66.02%78.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,500.0053,623.9570,441.8087,976.34106,251.03125,289.99132,633.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Year 1 PV (M)49,573.4250,063.2450,553.05
Year 2 PV (M)60,201.9661,397.5062,604.79
Year 3 PV (M)69,508.2271,588.9973,710.88
Year 4 PV (M)77,605.6780,718.5983,924.23
Year 5 PV (M)84,599.3088,862.1793,295.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,177,730.772,287,464.282,401,577.36
Equity Value (M)2,519,219.342,640,094.772,765,665.49
Shares Outstanding (M)436.58436.58436.58
Fair Value$5,770.32$6,047.19$6,334.81
Upside / Downside93.44%102.72%112.36%

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