Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arealink Co., Ltd. (8914.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,450.67 - $14,056.95$13,173.42
Multi-Stage$2,129.48 - $2,330.36$2,228.08
Blended Fair Value$7,700.75
Current Price$1,211.00
Upside535.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.41%17.01%28.9517.2011.727.709.9311.439.669.459.408.68
YoY Growth--68.26%46.81%52.15%-22.45%-13.14%18.41%2.16%0.57%8.29%44.22%
Dividend Yield--2.96%2.60%1.99%1.15%1.71%3.26%2.05%0.55%1.27%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,589.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,609.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,980.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)717.87448.67269.20
Cash Retained (M)1,980.211,980.211,980.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-717.87-448.67-269.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,262.341,531.541,711.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.7850.7850.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share24.8630.1633.69
LTM Dividend per Share31.6931.6931.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share24.8630.1633.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend56.5561.8565.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,450.67$13,173.42$14,056.95
Upside / Downside432.67%987.81%1,060.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,589.343,822.644,071.114,335.744,617.564,917.705,065.23
Payout Ratio44.83%53.86%62.90%71.93%80.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,609.132,059.052,560.673,118.803,738.664,425.934,685.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,916.581,934.751,952.92
Year 2 PV (M)2,218.572,260.832,303.49
Year 3 PV (M)2,515.172,587.372,660.94
Year 4 PV (M)2,806.442,914.373,025.38
Year 5 PV (M)3,092.463,241.833,396.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,588.50100,205.46104,999.12
Equity Value (M)108,137.73113,144.61118,338.76
Shares Outstanding (M)50.7850.7850.78
Fair Value$2,129.48$2,228.08$2,330.36
Upside / Downside75.84%83.99%92.43%

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