Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,066.68 - $1,606.16 | $1,321.62 |
| Multi-Stage | $2,267.71 - $2,489.70 | $2,376.55 |
| Blended Fair Value | $1,849.08 | |
| Current Price | $2,591.50 | |
| Upside | -28.65% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.75% | 17.40% | 101.99 | 150.32 | 67.16 | 75.06 | 67.50 | 64.06 | 61.21 | 81.96 | 81.99 | 81.96 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -32.16% | 123.82% | -10.52% | 11.21% | 5.37% | 4.65% | -25.32% | -0.05% | 0.05% | 299.64% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.14% | 7.84% | 3.64% | 4.59% | 2.93% | 5.29% | 4.56% | 5.46% | 5.44% | 9.77% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,807.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,515.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,292.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,361.40 | 850.88 | 510.53 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,292.00 | 1,292.00 | 1,292.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,361.40 | -850.88 | -510.53 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -69.40 | 441.13 | 781.48 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 54.08 | 54.08 | 54.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -1.28 | 8.16 | 14.45 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 101.99 | 101.99 | 101.99 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -1.28 | 8.16 | 14.45 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 100.70 | 110.14 | 116.44 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.13% | 7.13% | 7.13% |
| Growth Rate | -2.11% | -1.11% | -0.11% |
| Fair Value | $1,066.68 | $1,321.62 | $1,606.16 |
| Upside / Downside | -58.84% | -49.00% | -38.02% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,807.00 | 6,731.16 | 6,656.16 | 6,582.00 | 6,508.67 | 6,436.15 | 6,629.24 |
| Payout Ratio | 81.02% | 82.82% | 84.61% | 86.41% | 88.20% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,515.00 | 5,574.45 | 5,631.90 | 5,687.37 | 5,740.90 | 5,792.54 | 6,132.05 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.13% | 7.13% | 7.13% |
| Growth Rate | -2.11% | -1.11% | -0.11% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,150.97 | 5,203.60 | 5,256.22 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,808.71 | 4,907.47 | 5,007.22 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,487.17 | 4,626.10 | 4,767.87 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,185.32 | 4,358.99 | 4,538.00 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,902.15 | 4,105.59 | 4,317.42 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 100,095.30 | 105,313.70 | 110,747.50 |
| Equity Value (M) | 122,629.63 | 128,515.44 | 134,634.25 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 54.08 | 54.08 | 54.08 |
| Fair Value | $2,267.71 | $2,376.55 | $2,489.70 |
| Upside / Downside | -12.49% | -8.29% | -3.93% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | 1.14% | $5.26 | 32.54% |
| MATX | Matson, Inc. | 1.14% | $1.42 | 10.47% |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | 1.14% | $1.74 | 18.66% |
| ARMK | Aramark | 1.13% | $0.42 | 33.95% |
| CVLG | Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.25 | 21.30% |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | 1.13% | $0.61 | 21.38% |
| WHD | Cactus, Inc. | 1.13% | $0.53 | 21.20% |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares Inc. | 1.12% | $0.28 | 10.89% |
| LII | Lennox International Inc. | 1.12% | $5.59 | 23.57% |
| ROL | Rollins, Inc. | 1.12% | $0.66 | 61.92% |
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | 1.11% | $1.07 | 34.36% |
| GOLF | Acushnet Holdings Corp. | 1.11% | $0.91 | 24.93% |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | 1.11% | $0.30 | 37.27% |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | 1.11% | $0.27 | 21.86% |
| RSG | Republic Services, Inc. | 1.11% | $2.33 | 34.47% |
| 0HOU.L | BorgWarner Inc. | 1.10% | $0.50 | 80.60% |
| 0K3H.L | Motorola Solutions, Inc. | 1.10% | $4.20 | 33.55% |
| FBK | FB Financial Corporation | 1.10% | $0.62 | 32.29% |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 1.09% | $1.16 | 23.05% |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | 1.09% | $0.16 | 26.28% |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1.08% | $1.07 | 12.88% |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.45 | 14.21% |
| LFUS | Littelfuse, Inc. | 1.08% | $2.83 | 59.57% |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.21 | 15.92% |
| TPX | Tempur Sealy International, Inc. | 1.08% | $0.62 | 42.01% |
| WSC | WillScot Holdings Corporation | 1.08% | $0.21 | 17.16% |
| BVH | Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation | 1.07% | $0.80 | 18.69% |
| HNNAZ | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 | 1.07% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.46 | 12.57% |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | 1.07% | $0.96 | 23.70% |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | 1.05% | $2.06 | 12.63% |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | 1.05% | $1.01 | 36.06% |
| 0H9N.L | Aecom | 1.04% | $1.00 | 23.78% |
| BODY | The Beachbody Company, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.10 | 1.61% |
| LYTS | LSI Industries Inc. | 1.04% | $0.19 | 24.09% |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp, Inc. | 1.04% | $0.53 | 10.03% |
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 1.03% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | 1.03% | $1.59 | 35.03% |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.76 | 13.03% |
| CRAI | CRA International, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.05 | 23.94% |
| CTA-PB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company | 1.02% | $0.70 | 29.41% |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | 1.02% | $0.36 | 33.06% |
| HSII | Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. | 1.02% | $0.60 | 34.74% |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | 1.02% | $2.02 | 11.09% |
| 0HTG.L | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 1.01% | $2.07 | 31.03% |
| 0I4X.L | Crown Holdings, Inc. | 1.01% | $1.03 | 12.58% |
| CMC | Commercial Metals Company | 1.01% | $0.72 | 96.19% |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | 1.01% | $0.36 | 27.67% |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 1.00% | $0.52 | 59.68% |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. | 1.00% | $0.96 | 11.84% |