Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Victory Securities (Holdings) Company Limited (8540.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.96 - $2.97$2.44
Multi-Stage$3.88 - $4.28$4.08
Blended Fair Value$3.26
Current Price$4.88
Upside-33.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-26.46%0.00%0.010.020.020.030.030.030.050.070.110.00
YoY Growth---68.72%-23.08%-13.33%-4.01%7.43%-48.57%-27.59%-30.29%8,220.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.60%1.18%1.26%2.35%2.20%3.94%5.74%8.23%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.775.483.29
Cash Retained (M)43.6743.6743.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.77-5.48-3.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.9038.1940.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.42194.42194.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.02%7.02%7.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.96$2.44$2.97
Upside / Downside-59.83%-50.09%-39.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.8643.4242.9942.5642.1341.7142.96
Payout Ratio0.44%18.35%36.26%54.18%72.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.197.9715.5923.0630.3737.5439.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.02%7.02%7.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7.377.457.52
Year 2 PV (M)13.3413.6113.89
Year 3 PV (M)18.2518.8119.39
Year 4 PV (M)22.2323.1524.10
Year 5 PV (M)25.4126.7428.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)668.73703.55739.81
Equity Value (M)755.32793.30832.82
Shares Outstanding (M)194.42194.42194.42
Fair Value$3.88$4.08$4.28
Upside / Downside-20.39%-16.39%-12.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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