Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Amia Co.,Ltd (8438.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.06 - $76.62$48.40
Multi-Stage$44.67 - $48.95$46.77
Blended Fair Value$47.59
Current Price$30.40
Upside56.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.53%0.00%0.901.001.990.800.180.520.000.300.210.27
YoY Growth---10.00%-50.00%150.37%345.86%-65.65%0.00%-100.00%43.48%-23.05%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.78%3.58%8.00%2.04%0.55%2.61%0.00%1.41%0.92%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.1014.448.66
Cash Retained (M)24.5724.5724.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.10-14.44-8.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.4710.1315.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.2470.2470.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.140.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.140.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Fair Value$33.06$48.40$76.62
Upside / Downside8.74%59.21%152.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.50119.29123.21127.25131.43135.75139.82
Payout Ratio78.73%80.98%83.24%85.49%87.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.9396.60102.55108.79115.33122.18129.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)89.9590.8391.71
Year 2 PV (M)88.9290.6692.43
Year 3 PV (M)87.8390.4393.08
Year 4 PV (M)86.7090.1493.68
Year 5 PV (M)85.5289.7994.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,698.952,833.492,973.34
Equity Value (M)3,137.873,285.343,438.46
Shares Outstanding (M)70.2470.2470.24
Fair Value$44.67$46.77$48.95
Upside / Downside46.94%53.85%61.02%

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