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Definitive Analysis

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Yamaha Corporation (7951.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$430.57 - $706.38$553.44
Multi-Stage$825.80 - $906.69$865.47
Blended Fair Value$709.45
Current Price$984.10
Upside-27.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.59%6.68%26.2925.5824.4024.7825.0024.2922.7321.8121.0516.90
YoY Growth--2.79%4.80%-1.53%-0.88%2.92%6.89%4.19%3.63%24.58%22.73%
Dividend Yield--2.52%2.05%1.33%1.33%1.24%1.44%1.30%1.14%1.63%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,845.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,948.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,897.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,569.002,230.631,338.38
Cash Retained (M)5,897.005,897.005,897.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,569.00-2,230.63-1,338.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,328.003,666.384,558.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.06464.06464.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.027.909.82
LTM Dividend per Share25.7525.7525.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.027.909.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.7633.6535.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$430.57$553.44$706.38
Upside / Downside-56.25%-43.76%-28.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,845.0017,950.5118,056.6518,163.4118,270.8018,378.8318,930.19
Payout Ratio66.95%71.56%76.17%80.78%85.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,948.0012,846.0113,754.2214,672.7215,601.6016,540.9517,510.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)11,918.9112,038.5912,158.27
Year 2 PV (M)11,840.5712,079.5412,320.91
Year 3 PV (M)11,719.6712,076.2612,440.01
Year 4 PV (M)11,562.2512,033.6812,519.38
Year 5 PV (M)11,373.7111,956.3112,562.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)324,805.54341,443.26358,755.88
Equity Value (M)383,220.65401,627.64420,757.00
Shares Outstanding (M)464.06464.06464.06
Fair Value$825.80$865.47$906.69
Upside / Downside-16.09%-12.05%-7.87%

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