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Definitive Analysis

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United Arrows Ltd. (7606.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,078.38 - $1,575.67$1,318.44
Multi-Stage$2,187.58 - $2,406.36$2,294.82
Blended Fair Value$1,806.63
Current Price$2,140.00
Upside-15.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-8.10%-3.30%55.2053.1424.747.2462.7084.2180.1280.0185.3486.06
YoY Growth--3.89%114.79%241.50%-88.45%-25.55%5.11%0.14%-6.24%-0.84%11.44%
Dividend Yield--2.58%2.58%1.00%0.35%2.91%4.62%2.38%1.93%2.34%2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,982.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,729.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,253.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)796.40497.75298.65
Cash Retained (M)2,253.002,253.002,253.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-796.40-497.75-298.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,456.601,755.251,954.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.6127.6127.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share52.7663.5870.79
LTM Dividend per Share62.6362.6362.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share52.7663.5870.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend115.39126.20133.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate-2.84%-1.84%-0.84%
Fair Value$1,078.38$1,318.44$1,575.67
Upside / Downside-49.61%-38.39%-26.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,982.003,908.733,836.803,766.203,696.903,628.873,737.74
Payout Ratio43.42%52.74%62.05%71.37%80.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,729.002,061.322,380.822,687.872,982.813,265.983,457.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate-2.84%-1.84%-0.84%
Year 1 PV (M)1,896.981,916.511,936.03
Year 2 PV (M)2,016.342,058.062,100.21
Year 3 PV (M)2,094.902,160.262,226.95
Year 4 PV (M)2,139.442,228.892,321.11
Year 5 PV (M)2,155.802,269.042,387.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,092.1952,723.6255,464.50
Equity Value (M)60,395.6563,356.3866,435.81
Shares Outstanding (M)27.6127.6127.61
Fair Value$2,187.58$2,294.82$2,406.36
Upside / Downside2.22%7.23%12.45%

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