Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Arabian Internet and Communications Services Co. Ltd. (7202.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$117.00 - $179.49$146.15
Multi-Stage$262.78 - $288.77$275.52
Blended Fair Value$210.84
Current Price$257.40
Upside-18.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-2.25%0.00%5.954.963.963.330.006.672.500.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.02%25.19%18.80%0.00%-100.00%166.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.94%1.30%1.59%1.58%0.00%3.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,551.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,190.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)360.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)310.24193.90116.34
Cash Retained (M)360.77360.77360.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-310.24-193.90-116.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.54166.88244.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.421.392.04
LTM Dividend per Share9.929.929.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.421.392.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3411.3111.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$117.00$146.15$179.49
Upside / Downside-54.54%-43.22%-30.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,551.181,535.671,520.311,505.111,490.061,475.161,519.41
Payout Ratio76.74%79.39%82.05%84.70%87.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,190.411,219.221,247.341,274.781,301.541,327.641,405.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,131.531,143.081,154.62
Year 2 PV (M)1,074.371,096.401,118.67
Year 3 PV (M)1,019.021,050.541,082.70
Year 4 PV (M)965.591,005.601,046.85
Year 5 PV (M)914.11961.711,011.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,428.6227,804.8229,237.77
Equity Value (M)31,533.2433,062.1534,651.87
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$262.78$275.52$288.77
Upside / Downside2.09%7.04%12.19%

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