Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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halmek holdings Co.,Ltd. (7119.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$527.95 - $819.27$662.76
Multi-Stage$1,210.88 - $1,333.73$1,271.10
Blended Fair Value$966.93
Current Price$1,085.00
Upside-10.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)619.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)400.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.8077.3846.43
Cash Retained (M)400.00400.00400.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.80-77.38-46.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.20322.63353.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.0211.0211.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.0729.2932.09
LTM Dividend per Share19.8819.8819.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.0729.2932.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend44.9549.1651.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$527.95$662.76$819.27
Upside / Downside-51.34%-38.92%-24.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)619.00612.81606.68600.62594.61588.66606.32
Payout Ratio35.38%46.30%57.23%68.15%79.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.00283.75347.19409.33470.19529.80560.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)264.13266.83269.52
Year 2 PV (M)300.83307.00313.24
Year 3 PV (M)330.15340.36350.78
Year 4 PV (M)353.01367.64382.72
Year 5 PV (M)370.25389.53409.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,721.4112,331.7712,967.29
Equity Value (M)13,339.7814,003.1314,693.16
Shares Outstanding (M)11.0211.0211.02
Fair Value$1,210.88$1,271.10$1,333.73
Upside / Downside11.60%17.15%22.92%

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