Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co., Ltd. (688777.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.42 - $208.44$195.34
Multi-Stage$29.97 - $32.76$31.34
Blended Fair Value$113.34
Current Price$55.08
Upside105.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.84%0.00%0.720.540.240.160.000.250.090.150.010.00
YoY Growth--32.97%120.51%54.76%3,497.92%-98.22%176.16%-40.55%2,043.52%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.15%0.34%0.34%0.01%0.33%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)831.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)568.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)263.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.38103.9962.39
Cash Retained (M)263.81263.81263.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.38-103.99-62.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.43159.82201.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)793.69793.69793.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76.42$195.34$208.44
Upside / Downside38.74%254.65%278.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)831.88885.96943.541,004.871,070.191,139.751,173.94
Payout Ratio68.29%72.63%76.97%81.32%85.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)568.08643.47726.27817.11916.701,025.781,085.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)597.64603.31608.97
Year 2 PV (M)626.50638.43650.48
Year 3 PV (M)654.66673.45692.60
Year 4 PV (M)682.14708.37735.35
Year 5 PV (M)708.94743.18778.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,518.8621,509.9322,538.93
Equity Value (M)23,788.7424,876.6726,005.07
Shares Outstanding (M)793.69793.69793.69
Fair Value$29.97$31.34$32.76
Upside / Downside-45.58%-43.10%-40.51%

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