Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. (688578.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.76 - $40.72$34.67
Multi-Stage$42.14 - $46.31$44.18
Blended Fair Value$39.43
Current Price$110.24
Upside-64.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS54.36%0.00%0.650.000.000.000.000.070.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.43%641.78%5.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.19%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,982.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,802.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)396.54247.83148.70
Cash Retained (M)1,802.681,802.681,802.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-396.54-247.83-148.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,406.141,554.841,653.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)450.37450.37450.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.123.453.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.123.453.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.854.07
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$28.76$34.67$40.72
Upside / Downside-73.91%-68.55%-63.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,982.681,962.851,943.221,923.791,904.551,885.501,942.07
Payout Ratio9.08%25.26%41.45%57.63%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.00495.87805.411,108.711,405.861,696.951,796.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)446.24450.79455.35
Year 2 PV (M)652.25665.63679.15
Year 3 PV (M)808.01832.99858.49
Year 4 PV (M)922.02960.23999.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,001.541,053.691,107.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,146.8515,935.5816,756.83
Equity Value (M)18,976.9019,898.9220,857.43
Shares Outstanding (M)450.37450.37450.37
Fair Value$42.14$44.18$46.31
Upside / Downside-61.78%-59.92%-57.99%

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