Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

BlueSword Intelligent Technology Co.,Ltd. (688557.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$245.90 - $289.74$271.52
Multi-Stage$169.20 - $185.80$177.34
Blended Fair Value$224.43
Current Price$38.02
Upside490.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS58.42%0.00%0.350.290.250.260.010.030.060.020.000.00
YoY Growth--21.41%12.58%-3.14%2,534.53%-71.39%-36.82%143.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.48%1.30%0.99%1.12%0.04%0.05%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)142.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)119.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.4517.7810.67
Cash Retained (M)119.71119.71119.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.45-17.78-10.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.26101.93109.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.1597.1597.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.051.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.051.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate1.57%1.57%1.57%
Growth Rate4.94%5.94%6.94%
Fair Value$245.90$271.52$289.74
Upside / Downside546.77%614.15%662.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)142.27150.73159.68169.17179.22189.86195.56
Payout Ratio15.86%30.69%45.52%60.34%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.5646.2572.68102.08134.72170.88180.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.57%1.57%1.57%
Growth Rate4.94%5.94%6.94%
Year 1 PV (M)45.1145.5445.97
Year 2 PV (M)69.1270.4471.78
Year 3 PV (M)94.6797.41100.19
Year 4 PV (M)121.85126.56131.41
Year 5 PV (M)150.72158.04165.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,955.2516,730.0817,534.72
Equity Value (M)16,436.7117,228.0618,049.70
Shares Outstanding (M)97.1597.1597.15
Fair Value$169.20$177.34$185.80
Upside / Downside345.02%366.44%388.69%

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