Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Railway Construction Heavy Industry Corporation Limited (688425.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.89 - $2.70$2.29
Multi-Stage$2.84 - $3.13$2.98
Blended Fair Value$2.63
Current Price$5.38
Upside-51.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-27.62%0.00%0.100.120.110.020.270.510.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth---14.24%6.92%583.47%-94.09%-46.35%2,098.85%9.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.39%2.98%2.09%0.37%3.32%6.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,482.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,450.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)296.50185.31111.19
Cash Retained (M)1,450.081,450.081,450.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-296.50-185.31-111.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,153.581,264.771,338.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,333.505,333.505,333.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.89$2.29$2.70
Upside / Downside-64.85%-57.47%-49.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,482.521,467.691,453.011,438.481,424.101,409.861,452.15
Payout Ratio2.19%19.75%37.31%54.88%72.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.43289.87542.16789.371,031.581,268.871,343.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)261.99264.66267.34
Year 2 PV (M)442.88451.97461.14
Year 3 PV (M)582.80600.83619.22
Year 4 PV (M)688.38716.91746.31
Year 5 PV (M)765.28805.13846.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,417.1913,063.7813,737.03
Equity Value (M)15,158.5215,903.2716,677.67
Shares Outstanding (M)5,333.505,333.505,333.50
Fair Value$2.84$2.98$3.13
Upside / Downside-47.17%-44.58%-41.88%

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