Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arctech Solar Holding Co., Ltd. (688408.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SolarSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.63 - $302.14$203.57
Multi-Stage$38.00 - $41.50$39.71
Blended Fair Value$121.64
Current Price$47.43
Upside156.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS35.92%0.00%0.770.220.060.280.030.170.000.040.040.00
YoY Growth--253.65%243.81%-77.52%963.75%-84.04%0.00%-100.00%4.72%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.41%0.34%0.12%0.51%0.03%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)325.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)251.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.1340.7024.42
Cash Retained (M)74.5374.5374.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.13-40.70-24.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.4133.8350.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)214.33214.33214.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.160.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.160.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.63$203.57$302.14
Upside / Downside59.45%329.20%537.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)325.63346.80369.34393.35418.91446.14459.53
Payout Ratio77.11%79.69%82.27%84.84%87.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)251.10276.36303.84333.73366.22401.53425.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)255.39257.81260.23
Year 2 PV (M)259.48264.42269.41
Year 3 PV (M)263.38270.94278.64
Year 4 PV (M)267.09277.36287.92
Year 5 PV (M)270.61283.68297.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,828.167,157.977,500.39
Equity Value (M)8,144.108,512.178,893.84
Shares Outstanding (M)214.33214.33214.33
Fair Value$38.00$39.71$41.50
Upside / Downside-19.89%-16.27%-12.51%

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