Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Kontour (Xi'an) Medical Technology Co., Ltd. (688314.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.45 - $72.85$40.91
Multi-Stage$18.13 - $19.80$18.95
Blended Fair Value$29.93
Current Price$36.17
Upside-17.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS166.65%0.00%0.530.390.460.380.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--34.16%-13.74%20.38%9,170.51%4.38%1,363.28%7.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.74%1.27%1.06%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6811.056.63
Cash Retained (M)57.7157.7157.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.68-11.05-6.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.0346.6651.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.7080.7080.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.45$40.91$72.85
Upside / Downside-26.87%13.10%101.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.4094.15100.27106.78113.72121.12124.75
Payout Ratio34.72%45.77%56.83%67.89%78.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.6943.0956.9872.4989.78109.01115.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.1739.5439.91
Year 2 PV (M)47.0747.9648.87
Year 3 PV (M)54.4255.9857.58
Year 4 PV (M)61.2663.6166.04
Year 5 PV (M)67.6070.8674.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,193.591,251.241,311.09
Equity Value (M)1,463.091,529.191,597.73
Shares Outstanding (M)80.7080.7080.70
Fair Value$18.13$18.95$19.80
Upside / Downside-49.88%-47.61%-45.26%

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