Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Lante Optics Co., Ltd. (688127.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.34 - $30.64$20.41
Multi-Stage$10.57 - $11.53$11.04
Blended Fair Value$15.73
Current Price$32.43
Upside-51.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.14%32.62%0.210.160.150.150.160.080.100.010.050.01
YoY Growth--30.19%7.16%1.13%-5.53%95.70%-17.85%767.71%-78.82%370.58%-9.19%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.74%0.70%0.92%0.78%0.23%0.28%0.00%0.15%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)308.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)227.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.7838.6123.17
Cash Retained (M)227.23227.23227.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.78-38.61-23.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)165.45188.62204.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)407.51407.51407.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.34$20.41$30.64
Upside / Downside-55.77%-37.05%-5.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)308.88328.96350.34373.12397.37423.20435.89
Payout Ratio26.44%39.15%51.86%64.57%77.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.66128.79181.69240.94307.12380.88403.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)116.02117.12118.22
Year 2 PV (M)147.46150.27153.11
Year 3 PV (M)176.16181.22186.37
Year 4 PV (M)202.29210.07218.07
Year 5 PV (M)226.01236.93248.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,437.613,603.653,776.04
Equity Value (M)4,305.564,499.254,700.07
Shares Outstanding (M)407.51407.51407.51
Fair Value$10.57$11.04$11.53
Upside / Downside-67.42%-65.95%-64.44%

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