Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ACM Research (Shanghai), Inc. (688082.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.75 - $206.30$124.09
Multi-Stage$56.12 - $61.39$58.71
Blended Fair Value$91.40
Current Price$201.80
Upside-54.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS108.28%0.00%0.670.400.030.030.010.020.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--65.95%1,493.49%-0.58%76.12%-15.36%188.23%48.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.46%0.03%0.03%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,661.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,634.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)332.21207.63124.58
Cash Retained (M)1,634.881,634.881,634.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-332.21-207.63-124.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,302.671,427.251,510.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)446.77446.77446.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.923.193.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.923.193.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.973.253.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$82.75$124.09$206.30
Upside / Downside-58.99%-38.51%2.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,661.071,769.041,884.032,006.492,136.912,275.812,344.08
Payout Ratio1.58%19.26%36.95%54.63%72.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.19340.74696.071,096.161,545.312,048.232,168.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)308.84311.77314.70
Year 2 PV (M)571.85582.74593.74
Year 3 PV (M)816.24839.67863.54
Year 4 PV (M)1,042.971,083.081,124.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,253.001,313.521,376.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,081.0822,099.3023,156.50
Equity Value (M)25,073.9826,230.0827,429.16
Shares Outstanding (M)446.77446.77446.77
Fair Value$56.12$58.71$61.39
Upside / Downside-72.19%-70.91%-69.58%

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