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Definitive Analysis

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Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. (688029.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$171.34 - $650.19$499.11
Multi-Stage$83.46 - $91.15$87.24
Blended Fair Value$293.17
Current Price$100.35
Upside192.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.00%0.00%1.500.560.540.340.240.280.020.020.110.06
YoY Growth--168.22%3.43%59.28%38.77%-12.29%1,134.51%10.55%-81.61%97.09%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.28%0.80%0.73%0.37%0.19%0.25%0.03%0.03%0.14%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)611.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)467.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)143.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.2876.4245.85
Cash Retained (M)143.66143.66143.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.28-76.42-45.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.3867.2397.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)187.01187.01187.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.360.52
LTM Dividend per Share2.502.502.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.360.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.622.863.02
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$171.34$499.11$650.19
Upside / Downside70.75%397.37%547.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)611.40651.14693.46738.54786.54837.67862.80
Payout Ratio76.50%79.20%81.90%84.60%87.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)467.74515.72567.96624.81686.66753.90798.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)476.96481.48486.00
Year 2 PV (M)485.80495.06504.40
Year 3 PV (M)494.27508.46522.91
Year 4 PV (M)502.37521.69541.56
Year 5 PV (M)510.12534.76560.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,137.7513,772.3114,431.15
Equity Value (M)15,607.2716,313.7517,046.37
Shares Outstanding (M)187.01187.01187.01
Fair Value$83.46$87.24$91.15
Upside / Downside-16.83%-13.07%-9.17%

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