Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tsubakimoto Chain Co. (6371.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17,636.35 - $43,202.12$40,486.71
Multi-Stage$6,292.30 - $6,886.82$6,584.10
Blended Fair Value$23,535.41
Current Price$2,149.00
Upside995.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.99%11.13%68.8747.0147.4634.6732.8444.7846.6544.8138.7335.05
YoY Growth--46.51%-0.96%36.89%5.59%-26.67%-4.02%4.12%15.68%10.52%46.13%
Dividend Yield--3.83%2.23%3.88%3.43%3.11%5.14%3.86%3.06%2.40%3.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,030.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,219.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,811.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,406.002,753.751,652.25
Cash Retained (M)13,811.0013,811.0013,811.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,406.00-2,753.75-1,652.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,405.0011,057.2512,158.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.41101.41101.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share92.74109.03119.89
LTM Dividend per Share81.0581.0581.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share92.74109.03119.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend173.79190.08200.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17,636.35$40,486.71$43,202.12
Upside / Downside720.68%1,783.98%1,910.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,030.0023,461.9524,986.9826,611.1328,340.8530,183.0131,088.50
Payout Ratio37.31%47.85%58.38%68.92%79.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,219.0011,225.7414,588.6318,341.2722,520.1127,164.7128,756.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,437.7510,536.6810,635.62
Year 2 PV (M)12,612.4112,852.6413,095.14
Year 3 PV (M)14,743.6515,166.8815,598.14
Year 4 PV (M)16,832.0917,479.4018,145.21
Year 5 PV (M)18,878.3619,790.2020,736.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)564,610.41591,881.31620,195.92
Equity Value (M)638,114.67667,707.12698,406.96
Shares Outstanding (M)101.41101.41101.41
Fair Value$6,292.30$6,584.10$6,886.82
Upside / Downside192.80%206.38%220.47%

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