Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (6369.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38,580.46 - $94,506.95$88,566.85
Multi-Stage$13,642.03 - $14,937.90$14,278.04
Blended Fair Value$51,422.45
Current Price$4,660.00
Upside1,003.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.15%13.84%279.75154.35154.22122.16109.88116.48119.71148.0266.1959.34
YoY Growth--81.24%0.08%26.24%11.18%-5.66%-2.70%-19.13%123.63%11.55%-22.47%
Dividend Yield--7.06%3.89%4.52%4.61%4.47%5.52%5.65%3.66%2.14%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,676.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)887.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,788.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)735.20459.50275.70
Cash Retained (M)2,788.502,788.502,788.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-735.20-459.50-275.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,053.302,329.002,512.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.747.747.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share265.44301.08324.84
LTM Dividend per Share114.73114.73114.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share265.44301.08324.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend380.17415.81439.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38,580.46$88,566.85$94,506.95
Upside / Downside727.91%1,800.58%1,928.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,676.003,914.944,169.414,440.424,729.055,036.445,187.53
Payout Ratio24.14%37.31%50.49%63.66%76.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)887.501,460.842,104.962,826.653,633.264,532.794,798.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,358.301,371.171,384.05
Year 2 PV (M)1,819.821,854.481,889.47
Year 3 PV (M)2,272.212,337.432,403.90
Year 4 PV (M)2,715.592,820.032,927.44
Year 5 PV (M)3,150.113,302.263,460.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,212.8098,763.31103,487.98
Equity Value (M)105,528.81110,448.68115,553.07
Shares Outstanding (M)7.747.747.74
Fair Value$13,642.03$14,278.04$14,937.90
Upside / Downside192.75%206.40%220.56%

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