Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi Guoguang Commercial Chains Co., Ltd. (605188.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.09 - $0.13$0.11
Multi-Stage$0.16 - $0.18$0.17
Blended Fair Value$0.14
Current Price$15.71
Upside-99.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.12%0.00%0.010.010.030.070.010.010.020.170.070.00
YoY Growth---24.43%-55.89%-60.70%458.88%83.83%-58.84%-90.23%155.10%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.12%0.14%0.35%0.95%0.12%0.10%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.190.750.45
Cash Retained (M)0.980.980.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.19-0.75-0.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.210.240.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)527.23527.23527.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.09$0.11$0.13
Upside / Downside-99.45%-99.33%-99.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.975.915.855.805.745.685.85
Payout Ratio83.54%84.83%86.12%87.42%88.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.995.025.045.075.095.115.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.594.634.68
Year 2 PV (M)4.214.304.39
Year 3 PV (M)3.873.994.11
Year 4 PV (M)3.553.703.85
Year 5 PV (M)3.263.433.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)65.3068.7072.24
Equity Value (M)84.7988.7692.88
Shares Outstanding (M)527.23527.23527.23
Fair Value$0.16$0.17$0.18
Upside / Downside-98.98%-98.93%-98.88%

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