Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

ZhongWang Fabric Co., Ltd. (605003.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - TextilesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.62 - $8.74$7.06
Multi-Stage$13.38 - $14.71$14.03
Blended Fair Value$10.55
Current Price$22.77
Upside-53.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.10%0.00%0.410.410.410.400.000.480.000.870.530.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%2.50%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%64.70%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.18%2.39%2.08%1.80%0.00%1.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.048.154.89
Cash Retained (M)20.0820.0820.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.04-8.15-4.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.0511.9415.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)109.81109.81109.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.62$7.06$8.74
Upside / Downside-75.33%-69.00%-61.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.1864.5363.8963.2562.6161.9963.85
Payout Ratio69.19%73.35%77.51%81.68%85.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.1047.3349.5251.6653.7555.7959.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)44.0944.5444.99
Year 2 PV (M)42.9643.8444.73
Year 3 PV (M)41.7443.0344.34
Year 4 PV (M)40.4442.1243.85
Year 5 PV (M)39.1041.1443.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,260.431,326.061,394.40
Equity Value (M)1,468.751,540.721,615.56
Shares Outstanding (M)109.81109.81109.81
Fair Value$13.38$14.03$14.71
Upside / Downside-41.26%-38.38%-35.39%

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